The Uncommon Average
by Mary Suplee on Mar 2, 2018
The U.S. stock market has delivered an average annual return of around 10% since 1926. But short-term results may vary, and in any given period stock returns can be positive, negative or flat. When setting expectations, it's helpful to understand the range of outcomes experienced by investors historically. For example, how often have the stock market's annual returns actually aligned with its long-term average?
Since 1926, the S&P 500 Index's historical average return was 10%, plus or minus 2 percentage points. The S&P 500 had a return within this range in only six of the past 91 calendar years. In most years the index's return was outside of the range, often above or below by a wide margin, with no obvious pattern. For investors, this data highlights the importance of looking beyond average returns and being aware of the range of potential outcomes. Despite the year-to-year uncertainty, investors can potentially increase their chances of having a positive outcome by maintaining a long-term focus. If you look at the frequency of positive returns over rolling periods of one, five, 10 and 15 years in the US market, the data shows that, while positive performance is never assured, investors' odds improve over longer time horizons.
While some investors might find it easy to stay the course in years with above average returns, periods of disappointing results may test an investor's faith in equity markets. Being aware of the range of potential outcomes can help investors remain disciplined, which in the long term can increase the odds of a successful investment experience. What can help investors endure the ups and downs? While there is no silver bullet, having an understanding of how markets work and trusting market prices are good starting points. An asset allocation that aligns with personal risk tolerances and investment goals is also valuable. Financial advisors can play a critical role in helping investors sort through these and other issues as well as keeping them focused on their long-term goals.